Do changes in travellers’ attitudes towards car use and ownership over time affect travel mode choice? A latent transition approach in the Netherlands

Olde Kalter, La Paix Puello, Geurs, 2020, in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.10.015
Location Netherlands
Population General
Sample size 1640
Factor analysis type principal components, oblimin rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables no
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

This paper examines how changes in travellers’ attitudes towards car use and ownership change over time and how these changes influence car use, based on the 2014 and 2016 waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel (N = 1640). A latent transition model was estimated to investigate transitions between different segments based on travellers’ attitudes towards car use and ownership, and the latent transition probabilities were used to predict changes in mode use. Four latent classes were found to reflect the participants’ attitudes: cost-sensitive, car-minded, environmentally aware and social-conscious travellers. Most of the participants remained in the same class between 2014 and 2016, which suggests that attitudes towards car use and ownership are stable over time. Also, the results indicate that car use and car ownership may be less widespread among younger adults. Only when younger adults face life events, such as moving, starting a job or become parents, transitioning to more car-oriented profiles appears more likely. Changes in attitudes towards car use and car ownership do not significantly affect car use (number of trips per day), except for the social-conscious travellers who switched to the car-minded class. This suggests that, in most cases, a more positive or negative attitude towards car use and ownership does not directly affect the frequency of car use. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

Factors

Variable Pattern loading
Owning a car allows me to do whatever I want (Convenience) 0.684
Travelling by car offers a lot of advantages compared with other modes (Mode-liking) 0.63
I can't live without a car (Convenience) 0.599
Nearly every time I travel, I use the car (Other) 0.529
Driving a car is fun (Mode-liking) 0.436
Variable Pattern loading
Because of the costs, I'm using the car less frequently (Cost) 0.831
My financial situation is a reason to postpone buying a (new) car (Cost) 0.722
Owning a car is difficult because of the expenses (Cost) 0.541
Variable Pattern loading
It makes no sense to care about the environment, you can't change it by yourself (Environmentalism) -0.845
It makes no sense to use the car less frequently because others keep driving (Environmentalism) -0.743
The environment would benefit from less car use (Environmentalism) 0.588
Variable Pattern loading
My friends think you should only use the car when there is no other option (Social norms) 0.647
I only use the car when it is necessary (Lifestyle) 0.611
Because of the environment, I tried to use the car less frequently (Environmentalism) 0.584
Variable Pattern loading
A car represents someone's taste (Social norms) 0.769
A car represents someone's position in society (Social norms) 0.682

Models

Dependent variable 2016 latent class, mode choice
Model type Latent transition model
Sample size 1640.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Bicycle
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Cost-sensitive to cost sensitive -0.23 nan
Cost sensitive to car minded -0.02 nan
Cost sensitive to environmentally aware 0.01 nan
Cost sensitive to social conscious 0.23 nan
Car minded to cost sensitive -0.14 nan
Car minded to car minded 0.0 nan
Car minded to environmentally aware 0.55 nan
Car minded to social conscious -0.4 nan
Environmentally aware to cost sensitive 0.38 nan
Environmentally aware to car minded -0.14 nan
Environmentally aware to environmentally aware -0.05 nan
Environmentally aware to social conscious -0.19 nan
Social conscious to cost sensitive 0.16 nan
Social conscious to car minded -0.09 nan
Social conscious aware to environmentally aware -0.09 nan
Social conscious aware to social conscious 0.03 nan
Car
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Cost-sensitive to cost sensitive -0.35 nan
Cost sensitive to car minded 0.08 nan
Cost sensitive to environmentally aware 0.36 nan
Cost sensitive to social conscious -0.09 nan
Car minded to cost sensitive -0.3 nan
Car minded to car minded 0.24 nan
Car minded to environmentally aware -0.1 nan
Car minded to social conscious -0.65 <0.05
Environmentally aware to cost sensitive -0.41 nan
Environmentally aware to car minded 0.94 <0.05
Environmentally aware to environmentally aware -0.04 nan
Environmentally aware to social conscious -0.49 nan
Social conscious to cost sensitive 0.0 nan
Social conscious to car minded 0.68 <0.05
Social conscious aware to environmentally aware 0.4 nan
Social conscious aware to social conscious -0.19 nan
Class 1
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Class 2: Constant -3.62 0.69
Class 2: Gender (male=ref) -0.43 0.56
Class 2: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.56 0.06
Class 2: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.51 0.04
Class 2: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.02 0.08
Class 2: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -9.4 0.4
Class 2: Moderately educated (low=ref) -0.74 0.44
Class 2: Highly educated (low=ref) -2.49 0.05
Class 2: Employment (no=ref) -0.58 0.51
Class 2: Drivers license (no=ref) -0.65 0.74
Class 2: PT season ticket (no=ref) 1.45 0.08
Class 2: Urban environment (no=ref) -1.64 0.03
Class 2: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) 7.95 0.35
Class 2: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -8.13 0.55
Class 2: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -2.1 0.22
Class 2: New job/started working (no=ref) -2.31 0.09
Class 2: Moved home (no=ref) -0.18 0.88
Class 3: Constant -17.36 0.22
Class 3: Gender (male=ref) -4.47 0.09
Class 3: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) 8.36 0.33
Class 3: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -45.21 0
Class 3: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -15.68 0.07
Class 3: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 23.53 0.03
Class 3: Moderately educated (low=ref) -3.92 0.2
Class 3: Highly educated (low=ref) -29.71 0
Class 3: Employment (no=ref) 9.78 0.05
Class 3: Drivers license (no=ref) -15.95 0.16
Class 3: PT season ticket (no=ref) -4.31 0.3
Class 3: Urban environment (no=ref) 9.76 0.02
Class 3: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) 3.43 0.65
Class 3: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 23.58 0
Class 3: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 26.18 0
Class 3: New job/started working (no=ref) -7.6 0.16
Class 3: Moved home (no=ref) -19.9 0.03
Class 4: Constant 3.3 0.72
Class 4: Gender (male=ref) -2.72 0.45
Class 4: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -19.33 0.36
Class 4: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -39.89 0.05
Class 4: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -25.84 0.07
Class 4: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 10.12 0.12
Class 4: Moderately educated (low=ref) -19.07 0.05
Class 4: Highly educated (low=ref) -39.28 0.04
Class 4: Employment (no=ref) 9.98 0.11
Class 4: Drivers license (no=ref) -8.68 0.18
Class 4: PT season ticket (no=ref) 1.56 0.58
Class 4: Urban environment (no=ref) -15.36 0.03
Class 4: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -4.19 0.34
Class 4: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 8.73 0.72
Class 4: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 35.86 0.04
Class 4: New job/started working (no=ref) -30.19 0.09
Class 4: Moved home (no=ref) 9.14 0.56
Class 2
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Class 1: Constant -13.3 0.24
Class 1: Gender (male=ref) -1.62 0.12
Class 1: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -1.68 0.23
Class 1: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) 1.16 0.22
Class 1: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -6.22 0.44
Class 1: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -6.24 0.57
Class 1: Moderately educated (low=ref) 0.7 0.7
Class 1: Highly educated (low=ref) -0.1 0.95
Class 1: Employment (no=ref) 1.24 0.19
Class 1: Drivers license (no=ref) 5.74 0.6
Class 1: PT season ticket (no=ref) -0.91 0.29
Class 1: Urban environment (no=ref) 0.89 0.21
Class 1: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) 1.38 0.22
Class 1: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 0.79 0.54
Class 1: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -1.25 0.27
Class 1: New job/started working (no=ref) 1.99 0.01
Class 1: Moved home (no=ref) 0.96 0.03
Class 3: Constant -10.13 0.76
Class 3: Gender (male=ref) 6.94 0.07
Class 3: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -12.72 0.06
Class 3: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -24.66 0.02
Class 3: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -13.76 0.05
Class 3: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -28.77 0.29
Class 3: Moderately educated (low=ref) 15.52 0.45
Class 3: Highly educated (low=ref) -15.22 0.47
Class 3: Employment (no=ref) 15.56 0.05
Class 3: Drivers license (no=ref) 3.06 0.8
Class 3: PT season ticket (no=ref) -30.38 0.02
Class 3: Urban environment (no=ref) 2.07 0.46
Class 3: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -7.32 0.09
Class 3: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 19.37 0.01
Class 3: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -1.48 0.94
Class 3: New job/started working (no=ref) 20.9 0
Class 3: Moved home (no=ref) -18.3 0.11
Class 4: Constant -8.02 0.68
Class 4: Gender (male=ref) 4.19 0.5
Class 4: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -6.65 0.68
Class 4: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -1.2 0.93
Class 4: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -13.02 0.41
Class 4: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.9 0.84
Class 4: Moderately educated (low=ref) -7.26 0.32
Class 4: Highly educated (low=ref) -13.73 0.21
Class 4: Employment (no=ref) -10.6 0.3
Class 4: Drivers license (no=ref) 6.69 0.72
Class 4: PT season ticket (no=ref) -3.49 0.67
Class 4: Urban environment (no=ref) 4.79 0.33
Class 4: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -17.89 0.09
Class 4: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 2.24 0.88
Class 4: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -8.38 0.58
Class 4: New job/started working (no=ref) 7.31 0.6
Class 4: Moved home (no=ref) -11.58 0.46
Class 3
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Class 1: Constant -49.85 0.06
Class 1: Gender (male=ref) -9.69 0.05
Class 1: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) 1.21 0.66
Class 1: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -14.12 0.05
Class 1: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.86 0.78
Class 1: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 10.92 0.08
Class 1: Moderately educated (low=ref) -13.82 0.39
Class 1: Highly educated (low=ref) 9.84 0.48
Class 1: Employment (no=ref) 10.12 0.05
Class 1: Drivers license (no=ref) -2.08 0.76
Class 1: PT season ticket (no=ref) 15.17 0.03
Class 1: Urban environment (no=ref) 3.29 0.27
Class 1: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -25.13 0.02
Class 1: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 9.66 0.1
Class 1: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -2.48 0.8
Class 1: New job/started working (no=ref) 24.24 0.02
Class 1: Moved home (no=ref) -5.35 0.27
Class 2: Constant 1.07 0.96
Class 2: Gender (male=ref) -3.81 0.23
Class 2: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -44.78 0.04
Class 2: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -10.62 0.29
Class 2: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) 20.14 0.05
Class 2: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 29.36 0.05
Class 2: Moderately educated (low=ref) -12.76 0.08
Class 2: Highly educated (low=ref) -10.55 0.07
Class 2: Employment (no=ref) 5.5 0.21
Class 2: Drivers license (no=ref) -20.56 0.15
Class 2: PT season ticket (no=ref) -23.13 0.04
Class 2: Urban environment (no=ref) 16.52 0.05
Class 2: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -6.38 0.09
Class 2: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 34.19 0.04
Class 2: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -14.85 0.27
Class 2: New job/started working (no=ref) 27.94 0.05
Class 2: Moved home (no=ref) -38.27 0.05
Class 4: Constant -8.03 0.56
Class 4: Gender (male=ref) -12.32 0.03
Class 4: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -6.55 0.17
Class 4: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -45.52 0.02
Class 4: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) -15.76 0.05
Class 4: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 16.06 0.09
Class 4: Moderately educated (low=ref) -51.07 0.01
Class 4: Highly educated (low=ref) -10.97 0.07
Class 4: Employment (no=ref) 4.02 0.23
Class 4: Drivers license (no=ref) 5.19 0.67
Class 4: PT season ticket (no=ref) -20.72 0.01
Class 4: Urban environment (no=ref) -8.25 0.03
Class 4: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -3.9 0.32
Class 4: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 59.45 0.01
Class 4: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 15.29 0.05
Class 4: New job/started working (no=ref) 35.54 0.01
Class 4: Moved home (no=ref) 9.33 0.05
Class 4
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Class 1: Constant -24.01 0.07
Class 1: Gender (male=ref) -14.61 0.01
Class 1: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) -45.31 0.02
Class 1: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -11.63 0.12
Class 1: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) 10.12 0.12
Class 1: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -28.99 0.06
Class 1: Moderately educated (low=ref) -6.35 0.25
Class 1: Highly educated (low=ref) 17.09 0.02
Class 1: Employment (no=ref) 9.88 0.09
Class 1: Drivers license (no=ref) -30.4 0.01
Class 1: PT season ticket (no=ref) 19.7 0.01
Class 1: Urban environment (no=ref) 11.44 0.07
Class 1: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -5.78 0.17
Class 1: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 16.31 0.35
Class 1: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 25.59 0.02
Class 1: New job/started working (no=ref) -7.01 0.21
Class 1: Moved home (no=ref) 14.86 0.07
Class 2: Constant -14.56 0.63
Class 2: Gender (male=ref) 2.03 0.78
Class 2: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) 0.06 0.99
Class 2: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) -2.77 0.86
Class 2: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) 7.99 0.61
Class 2: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) -0.29 0.99
Class 2: Moderately educated (low=ref) 1.71 0.93
Class 2: Highly educated (low=ref) 6.44 0.75
Class 2: Employment (no=ref) 1.17 0.93
Class 2: Drivers license (no=ref) -10.97 0.44
Class 2: PT season ticket (no=ref) -1.02 0.9
Class 2: Urban environment (no=ref) 7.72 0.44
Class 2: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) 5.97 0.5
Class 2: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 9.87 0.32
Class 2: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) 1.82 0.91
Class 2: New job/started working (no=ref) 9.76 0.39
Class 2: Moved home (no=ref) -5.21 0.67
Class 3: Constant -15.96 0.48
Class 3: Gender (male=ref) -9.46 0.15
Class 3: Age 30-39 years (18-29 years=ref) 6.17 0.52
Class 3: Age 40-49 years (18-29 years=ref) 2.92 0.77
Class 3: Age 50-64 years (18-29 years=ref) 2.05 0.85
Class 3: Age > 64 years (18-29 years=ref) 2.11 0.82
Class 3: Moderately educated (low=ref) 3.86 0.65
Class 3: Highly educated (low=ref) -11.96 0.28
Class 3: Employment (no=ref) -11.77 0.13
Class 3: Drivers license (no=ref) -13.49 0.09
Class 3: PT season ticket (no=ref) 12.81 0.14
Class 3: Urban environment (no=ref) -11.84 0.09
Class 3: Attitude accessibility PT (negative=ref) -3.1 0.36
Class 3: Increase # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -3.26 0.76
Class 3: Decrease # children < 17 yrs (no change = ref) -0.66 0.98
Class 3: New job/started working (no=ref) 20.46 0.04
Class 3: Moved home (no=ref) 22.07 0.09
PT
Variable Standardized_coefficient p-value
Cost-sensitive to cost sensitive -0.12 nan
Cost sensitive to car minded -0.23 <0.05
Cost sensitive to environmentally aware 0.26 nan
Cost sensitive to social conscious 0.09 nan
Car minded to cost sensitive 0.09 nan
Car minded to car minded 0.04 nan
Car minded to environmentally aware -0.26 <0.05
Car minded to social conscious 0.13 nan
Environmentally aware to cost sensitive 0.07 nan
Environmentally aware to car minded -0.18 <0.05
Environmentally aware to environmentally aware 0.05 nan
Environmentally aware to social conscious 0.06 nan
Social conscious to cost sensitive -0.02 nan
Social conscious to car minded -0.24 <0.05
Social conscious aware to environmentally aware -0.01 nan
Social conscious aware to social conscious 0.12 <0.05

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

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