Do environmental concerns affect commuting choices?: hybrid choice modelling with household survey data

Roberts, Popli, Harris, 2018, in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

doi:10.1111/rssa.12274
Location England
Population Other (specify)
Sample size 13139
Factor analysis type exploratory factor analysis, varimax rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables no
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

To meet ambitious climate change goals governments must encourage behavioural change alongside technological progress. Designing effective policy requires a thorough understanding of the factors that drive behaviours. In an effort to understand the role of environmental attitudes better we estimate a hybrid choice model (HCM) for commuting mode choice by using a large household survey data set. HCMs combine traditional discrete choice models with a structural equation model to integrate latent variables, such as attitudes, into the choice process. To date HCMs have utilized small bespoke data sets, beset with problems of selection and limited generalizability. To overcome these problems we demonstrate the feasibility of using this valuable modelling approach with nationally representative data. Our results suggest that environmental attitudes have an important influence on commute mode choice, and this can be exploited by governments looking to add to their climate change policy toolbox in an effort to change travel behaviours. © 2017 The Authors Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society.

Factors

Variable Pattern loading
Not worth UK trying to do anything about climate change (Environmentalism) 4.555
Not worth doing anything unless others do the same (Social norms) 4.26
The effects of climate change are too far in the future (Environmentalism) 4.404
Climate change is beyond our control (Environmentalism) 3.879
The environmental crisis has been exaggerated (Environmentalism) 3.854
Climate change will affect UK in next 30 years (Environmentalism) 4.011
World on course for major environmental disaster (Environmentalism) 3.73
Prepared to pay more for environmentally sympathetic products (Environmentalism) 3.162
Own behavior contributes to climate change (Environmentalism) 2.993
Changes made have to fit in with current lifestyle (Convenience) 2.764
Being green is an "alternative lifestyle" (Environmentalism) 1.409
Leads an environmentally sympathetic life (Environmentalism) 1
Variable Pattern loading
Does not buy goods with excess packaging (Environmentalism) 2.08
Buys recycled products (Environmentalism) 2.111
Takes fewer flights where possible (Environmentalism) 1.615
Takes own bags for shopping (Environmentalism) 1.927
Wears extra clothes rather than turn heating up (Environmentalism) 1.16
Does not leave tap running when brushing teeth (Environmentalism) 1.458
Switches off lights in empty rooms (Environmentalism) 1.125
Has solar or wind energy or green tariff (Environmentalism) 1.172
Separates rubbish for recycling (Environmentalism) 0.875
Does not leave television on standby overnight (Environmentalism) 1
Variable Pattern loading
Not worth UK trying to do anything about climate change (Environmentalism) 4.529
Not worth doing anything unless others do the same (Social norms) 4.384
The effects of climate change are too far in the future (Environmentalism) 4.37
Climate change is beyond our control (Environmentalism) 4.061
The environmental crisis has been exaggerated (Environmentalism) 3.823
Climate change will affect UK in next 30 years (Environmentalism) 3.803
World on course for major environmental disaster (Environmentalism) 3.6
Prepared to pay more for environmentally sympathetic products (Environmentalism) 2.844
Own behavior contributes to climate change (Environmentalism) 2.778
Changes made have to fit in with current lifestyle (Convenience) 2.538
Being green is an "alternative lifestyle" (Environmentalism) 1.444
Leads an environmentally sympathetic life (Environmentalism) 1
Variable Pattern loading
Does not buy goods with excess packaging (Environmentalism) 2.781
Buys recycled products (Environmentalism) 2.522
Takes fewer flights where possible (Environmentalism) 2.306
Takes own bags for shopping (Environmentalism) 1.975
Wears extra clothes rather than turn heating up (Environmentalism) 1.748
Does not leave tap running when brushing teeth (Environmentalism) 1.731
Switches off lights in empty rooms (Environmentalism) 1.55
Has solar or wind energy or green tariff (Environmentalism) 1.39
Separates rubbish for recycling (Environmentalism) 1.284
Does not leave television on standby overnight (Environmentalism) 1

Models

Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6256.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.185
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Environmental behaviors (men) -0.181 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (men) -0.105 <0.001
Age 0.701 <0.001
Age squared -0.563 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.071 nan
Children aged 3-4 years 0.094 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.06 nan
Children aged 12-15 years -0.006 nan
Education: degree -0.033 nan
Education: A level -0.036 nan
Education: O level 0.018 nan
Household income -0.088 <0.001
Married 0.195 <0.001
Health status 0.008 nan
Public transport quality -0.16 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.1 <0.001
Commute time -0.166 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (men)
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.295 <0.001
Age squared -0.236 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.005 nan
Children aged 3-4 years 0.006 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.015 <0.05
Children aged 12-15 years -0.005 nan
Education: degree 0.127 <0.001
Education: A level 0.097 <0.001
Education: O level 0.068 <0.001
Household income 0.099 <0.001
Married 0.01 nan
Health status -0.001 nan
Environmental behaviours (men)
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.517 <0.001
Age squared -0.312 <0.05
Children aged 0-2 years 0.023 <0.1
Children aged 3-4 years -0.004 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.005 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.001 nan
Education: degree 0.157 <0.001
Education: A level 0.079 <0.001
Education: O level 0.023 nan
Household income -0.058 <0.001
Married 0.064 <0.001
Health status 0.018 <0.001
Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6883.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.177
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Environmental behaviors (women) -0.167 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (women) 0.001 nan
Age 0.778 <0.001
Age squared -0.636 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.152 <0.001
Children aged 3-4 years 0.211 <0.001
Children aged 5-11 years 0.013 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.009 nan
Education: degree 0.459 <0.001
Education: A level 0.408 <0.001
Education: O level 0.265 <0.001
Household income 0.054 <0.001
Married -0.199 <0.001
Health status -0.014 nan
Public transport quality -0.126 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.147 <0.001
Commute time -0.233 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (women)
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.248 <0.001
Age squared -0.238 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years -0.014 nan
Children aged 3-4 years -0.016 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.023 <0.001
Children aged 12-15 years -0.007 nan
Education: degree 0.127 <0.001
Education: A level 0.09 <0.001
Education: O level 0.058 <0.001
Household income 0.097 <0.001
Married 0.003 nan
Health status -0.001 nan
Environmental behaviours (women)
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.683 <0.001
Age squared -0.448 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years -0.008 nan
Children aged 3-4 years 0.011 nan
Children aged 5-11 years 0.001 nan
Children aged 12-15 years -0.003 nan
Education: degree 0.121 <0.001
Education: A level 0.053 <0.001
Education: O level 0.021 nan
Household income -0.032 <0.05
Married 0.031 <0.001
Health status 0.009 <0.001
Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6256.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.124
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.509 <0.001
Age squared -0.418 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.051 nan
Children aged 3-4 years 0.089 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.059 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.021 nan
Education: degree -0.268 <0.001
Education: A level -0.178 <0.001
Education: O level -0.059 nan
Household income -0.112 <0.001
Married 0.149 <0.001
Health status -0.008 nan
Public transport quality -0.18 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.106 <0.001
Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6883.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.106
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 0.578 <0.001
Age squared -0.463 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.163 <0.001
Children aged 3-4 years 0.176 <0.001
Children aged 5-11 years 0.053 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.04 nan
Education: degree 0.268 <0.001
Education: A level 0.324 <0.001
Education: O level 0.234 <0.001
Household income 0.029 <0.1
Married -0.19 <0.001
Health status -0.025 nan
Public transport quality -0.157 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.168 <0.001
Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6265.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.164
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Environmental behaviors (men) -0.182 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (men) -0.109 <0.001
Age 0.635 <0.001
Age squared -0.501 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.07 nan
Children aged 3-4 years 0.092 nan
Children aged 5-11 years -0.071 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.019 nan
Education: degree -0.083 nan
Education: A level -0.067 nan
Education: O level -0.002 nan
Household income -0.112 <0.001
Married 0.2 <0.001
Health status 0.005 nan
Public transport quality -0.18 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.106 <0.001
Dependent variable Car commuting mode
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 6883.0
R2 nan
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) 0.132
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence nan
Choice model
Variable Coefficient p-value
Environmental behaviors (women) -0.17 <0.001
Environmental attitudes (women) -0.004 nan
Age 0.695 <0.001
Age squared -0.54 <0.001
Children aged 0-2 years 0.156 <0.001
Children aged 3-4 years 0.185 <0.001
Children aged 5-11 years 0.053 nan
Children aged 12-15 years 0.037 nan
Education: degree 0.372 <0.001
Education: A level 0.369 <0.001
Education: O level 0.253 <0.001
Household income 0.024 nan
Married -0.164 <0.001
Health status -0.017 nan
Public transport quality -0.157 <0.001
Average traffic speed 0.168 <0.001

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

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