Expanding scope of hybrid choice models allowing for mixture of social influences and latent attitudes: Application to intended purchase of electric cars

Kim, Rasouli, Timmermans, 2014, in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2014.08.016
Location Netherlands
Population Other (specify)
Sample size 726
Factor analysis type confirmatory factor analysis, none rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables no
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

Recently, policy makers' expectations about the role of electric cars in reducing emissions have risen substantially. In parallel, academic research on purchase intentions has dramatically increased. Originally, most studies have focused on utility attributes and price. More recently, several hybrid choice models have been estimated to include the impact of attitudes on choice probabilities. In addition, a few studies have caught the attention to social influence. In contributing to this line of research, this paper reports the results of an expanded hybrid choice, which simultaneously estimated all these different effects in a single integrated model of purchase intention. Results indicate that the model performs well. Costs considerations contribute most to the utility of electric cars. Social influence is less important, but there is also evidence that people tend to take it into consideration when there are positive public opinions about electric cars and the market share becomes almost half of friends of their social network. The intention to purchase an electric car is also influenced by attitudes about environmental concerns and technology acceptance. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Factors

Models

Dependent variable Behavior to purchase EC
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 726.0
R2 0.495
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -8051.6
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence -4061.1
Battery
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 4.347 0.0531
Male -0.0004 0.0387
Age 18-25 0.1797 0.0986
Age 25-36 0.0252 0.0833
Age 36-50 -0.1082 0.0695
Age 51-65 -0.0141 0.0681
Single 0.0048 0.0642
Couple without children 0.1159 0.0639
Couple with children < 12 -0.0507 0.0783
Highly educated 0.1235 0.0415
Income <625 Euros/month -0.173 0.0971
Income 625-1250 Euros/month -0.016 0.0772
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month 0.0342 0.0679
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month 0.0375 0.0724
Economic
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 4.2887 0.0443
Male 0.0726 0.0275
Age 18-25 -0.0808 0.0689
Age 25-36 0.0685 0.0599
Age 36-50 -0.0901 0.0493
Age 51-65 0.0331 0.0491
Single -0.0481 0.0459
Couple without children 0.0127 0.0448
Couple with children < 12 -0.0003 0.0553
Highly educated -0.0431 0.0292
Income <625 Euros/month -0.0332 0.0689
Income 625-1250 Euros/month 0.0199 0.0538
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month -0.0574 0.0485
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month 0.0882 0.0518
Environmental
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 4.8553 0.0579
Male 0.0091 0.04
Age 18-25 0.1042 0.1002
Age 25-36 0.0057 0.0864
Age 36-50 0.1339 0.0709
Age 51-65 -0.0184 0.0714
Single -0.0595 0.0667
Couple without children -0.0184 0.0642
Couple with children < 12 0.0875 0.0796
Highly educated -0.0046 0.0422
Income <625 Euros/month -0.2311 0.1
Income 625-1250 Euros/month -0.027 0.078
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month 0.0261 0.0706
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month 0.099 0.074
Innovation
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 3.5326 0.0495
Male 0.2796 0.0389
Age 18-25 0.1749 0.0892
Age 25-36 -0.0552 0.0775
Age 36-50 0.019 0.0654
Age 51-65 -0.0327 0.0663
Single -0.104 0.0646
Couple without children 0.0534 0.061
Couple with children < 12 0.1884 0.0737
Highly educated -0.0313 0.0397
Income <625 Euros/month -0.3972 0.086
Income 625-1250 Euros/month 0.0635 0.0804
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month -0.1122 0.0703
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month 0.1898 0.0685
Technological
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 4.1405 0.0496
Male -0.0246 0.0375
Age 18-25 0.133 0.0968
Age 25-36 0.0907 0.0763
Age 36-50 -0.0743 0.0645
Age 51-65 0.0156 0.0653
Single -0.1693 0.0629
Couple without children 0.0901 0.0601
Couple with children < 12 0.1016 0.0708
Highly educated 0.0366 0.0381
Income <625 Euros/month -0.0777 0.0988
Income 625-1250 Euros/month 0.0823 0.0727
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month 0.1723 0.0653
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month -0.05 0.0686
Variable Coefficient p-value
Constant 1.1852 0.4426
Standard deviation of the random panel effect parameter 2.2845 0
Male 0.206 0.0452
Age 18-25 0.4365 0.0773
Age 25-36 0.3271 0.119
Age 36-50 -0.3384 0.0605
Age 51-65 -0.3343 0.0545
Single -0.0068 0.9667
Couple without children -0.3178 0.0497
Couple with children < 12 -0.2076 0.2804
Highly educated 0.3035 0.0054
Income <625 Euros/month -0.2055 0.4019
Income 625-1250 Euros/month -0.2789 0.1553
Income 1251-1875 Euros/month -0.1543 0.3808
Income 1876-2500 Euros/month 0.3212 0.0899
EC 35% more expensive than equivalent standard car -0.83 0
EC 25% more expensive than equivalent standard car -0.5154 0
EC 15% more expensive than equivalent standard car -0.2614 0.0035
EC 5% more expensive than equivalent standard car 0.0058 0.9447
EC 5% less expensive than equivalent standard car 0.1879 0.0213
EC 15% less expensive than equivalent standard car 0.3486 0
EC 25% less expensive than equivalent standard car 0.5913 0
Electricity 35% more expensive than gas -0.8617 0
Electricity 25% more expensive than gas -0.607 0
Electricity 15% more expensive than gas -0.6204 0
Electricity 5% more expensive than gas -0.6923 0
Electricity 5% less expensive than gas 0.2346 0.0031
Electricity 15% less expensive than gas 0.6549 0
Electricity 25% less expensive than gas 0.8756 0
Car range 100 km -0.5142 0
Car range 250 km 0.0099 0.8595
Car range 400 km 0.1829 0.0007
Time to charge battery 5 min 0.3362 0
Time to charge battery 1 hour 0.0875 0.1056
Time to charge battery 4 hour -0.1459 0.0082
Max speed 80 km/hr -0.681 0
Max speed 120 km/hr 0.1719 0.0016
Max speed 160 km/hr 0.3316 0
Charging station at home 0.0864 0.1085
Charging station within 1 km 0.1218 0.0235
Charging station within 5 km -0.0092 0.8661
Only positive reviews 0.2078 0.0001
Mainly positive reviews 0.215 0.0001
Mainly negative reviews -0.0406 0.458
Share of friends and acquaintances with EC: 0% -0.0444 0.4163
Share of friends and acquaintances with EC: 25% -0.0559 0.3094
Share of friends and acquaintances with EC: 50% 0.1659 0.0022
Share of larger family members with EC: 0% -0.0948 0.0852
Share of larger family members with EC: 25% -0.026 0.6324
Share of larger family members with EC: 50% 0.0473 0.3808
Share of colleagues with EC: 0% 0.0757 0.1611
Share of colleagues with EC: 25% -0.0633 0.2452
Share of colleagues with EC: 50% 0.0328 0.5484
Share of peer social network with EC: 0% -0.0108 0.8425
Share of peer social network with EC: 25% 0.0299 0.5862
Share of peer social network with EC: 50% -0.0953 0.0806
Environmental aspects 1.4146 0
Economic aspects -1.6 0
Battery aspects -0.5023 0
Technological aspects -0.6149 0
Innovation value 0.2928 0.0002

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

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