How does the inclination to bicycle sway the decision to ride in warm and winter seasons?

Shirgaokar, Nurul Habib, 2018, in International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

doi:10.1080/15568318.2017.1378779
Location Edmonton, Canada
Population Other (specify)
Sample size 646
Factor analysis type exploratory factor analysis, oblimin rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables yes
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

Many cities are creating policies and programs aimed at expanding bicycling mode shares. Attitudes towards bicycling in combination with weather conditions, however, can strongly influence the decision to ride. In locations with wide annual seasonal variation, attitudes can radically alter demand on bicycle networks across the year. Though researchers have looked at weather impacts on bicycling, the link between attitudinal factors that might impact riding decisions and seasonal variation remains understudied. This paper investigates heterogeneous taste preferences about the inclination to bicycle for riders who ride only in the warm weather and those who ride all year long (including during severe winters). This research relies on survey data from Edmonton, Canada and presents results from a hybrid discrete choice model. After controlling for age, sex, education, income, the supply of bike lanes, and the latent variable “bicycling inclination,” the results indicate that attitudes have a significantly positive impact on the decision to ride across seasons. The findings suggest that public education and season-specific training programs—particularly aimed at adults and women—have the potential to increase bicycling all year around. © 2018 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Factors

Variable Pattern loading
I would ride a bike more often if I felt safer riding on the road (Safety) 0.831
I would like to travel by bike more than I do now (Mode-liking) 0.805
I would like to learn how to ride a bike more safely in traffic (Safety) 0.631
Many of the places I need to get regularly are within biking distance of my home (Convenience) 0.542
I have been biking more often because of the bike lanes that have been installed (Safety) 0.504
I would like to learn how to drive a vehicle more safely with cyclists in traffic (Safety) 0.453
There is so much traffic along streets near my home that it would make it difficult or unpleasant to ride a bike (Safety) 0.388
I have time to bike places instead of driving (Convenience) 0.361

Models

Dependent variable Bicycling frequency (never/warm season only/always)
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 563.0
R2 0.24
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero nan
Log-likelihood at constants -8799.8
Log-likelihood at convergence -6644.47
Measurement model (factor analysis)
Variable Coefficient p-value
I have time to bike to places instead of driving 1.0 nan
I would like to travel by bike more than I do now 1.09 0.0
I would ride a bike more often if I felt safer riding on the road 1.09 0.0
Many of the places I need to get regularly are within biking distance of my home 1.05 0.0
There is so much traffic along streets near my home that it would make it difficult or unpleasant to ride a bike 1.04 0.0
I would like to learn how to drive a vehicle more safely with cyclists in traffic 0.89 0.0
I would like to learn how to ride a bike more safely in traffic 0.83 0.0
I have been biking more often because of the bike lanes that have been installed 0.63 0.0
Structural model for latent variable
Variable Coefficient p-value
Standard normal error 0.56 0.0
Number of street intersections (1000 s) -0.41 0.0
Log of number of Edmonton's Transit System bus stops 0.3 0.001
Log of total length of Edmonton Transit System bus routes (km) 0.32 0.0
Utility: annual bicycling
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age in multiples of 5 years -2.75 0.0
Sex dummy (male=1, female=0) 2.17 0.0
Education dummy (high school/elementary=1, other=0) -0.83 0.259
Annual household income ($10,000) 0.07 0.181
Length of bike lanes that are classified as shared lanes, shared use pathways, or signed routes (km) 0.08 0.156
Log of number of trees with trunk diameters above 50 cm 0.15 0.174
Total number of destinations nearby (10 s) 0.07 0.503
Log of land use diversity index (calculated for type of zoned land uses from parcel level data) -1.06 0.239
Latent variable "Bicycling inclination" x log of age 0.89 0.0
Constant -6.33 0.02
Utility: seasonal bicycling
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age in multiples of 5 years -1.46 0.0
Sex dummy (male=1, female=0) 0.63 0.005
Education dummy (high school/elementary=1, other=0) -0.44 0.159
Annual household income ($10,000) 0.1 0.0
Length of bike lanes that are classified as shared lanes, shared use pathways, or signed routes (km) 0.02 0.156
Latent variable "Bicycling inclination" x log of age 0.51 0.0
Constant -0.92 0.49

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

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