Incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles: the influence of transport policies, attitudes and perceptions

Soto, Cantillo, Arellana, 2018, in Transportation

Location	Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga, Colombia
Population	General
Sample size	1065
Factor analysis type	exploratory factor analysis, unknown rotation
Stepwise regression	no
Removal of insignificant variables	no
Reviewed by	LCM

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of policies, attitudes and perceptions when incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles. The impact of possible policies such as gasoline taxes increases, purchase price subsidies, tax exemptions, and increases in fuel recharging station availability for alternative fuelled vehicles is evaluated using hybrid choice models. The models also allow assessing the sensitivity of latent variables (i.e., attitudes and perceptions) in the car purchase behaviour. The models are estimated using data from a stated choice survey collected in five Colombian cities. The latent variables are obtained from the rating of statements related to the transport system, environmental concern, vehicle preferences, and technology. The modelling approach includes regression between latent variables. Results show that environmental concern and the support for green transport policies have a positive influence on the intention to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. Meanwhile, people who reveal to be car-dependent prefer to buy standard fuelled vehicles. The analysis among cities shows similar trends in individual behaviour, although there are differences in attribute sensitivities. The policy scenario analysis revealed high sensitivity to capital cost and the need for extensive investments in refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles to become attractive. Nevertheless, all policies should not only be directed at infrastructure and vehicles but also be focused on user awareness and acceptance of the alternative fuel vehicles. The analysis suggests that in an environmentally conscious market, people prefer alternative fuels. However, if the transport policies support private transport, the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles will decrease. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

Factors

Variable	Pattern loading
Use sidewalks for green areas, bike paths, and pedestrians (Other)	0.7
Air pollution does not affect my life (Safety)	-0.88
Industries must be asked for the use of recycled products (Environmentalism)	1.32
I would rather buy an environmentally friendly item even if they are more expensive (Environmentalism)	0.64
Environmental requirements are an obstacle to progress (Transport policy)	-0.75

Variable	Pattern loading
A car is vital in my life (Convenience)	1.37
When my car does not work, I will use public transport instead of a taxi (Other)	-0.85
I use a vehicle for all my trips, even for short distances (Other)	0.82
Invest in public transport, improving the BRT infrastructure (Transport policy)	-0.41

Variable	Pattern loading
I like top-notch technology (Lifestyle)	3.99
Most problems could be solved with technology (Other)	1
Technology does more harm than good (Other)	-0.78

Variable	Pattern loading
More public areas available for parking (Transport policy)	-1.89
No gasoline taxes to reduce prices (Transport policy)	-1.18
Congestion charging (Transport policy)	1.59

Models

Dependent variable	Car choice
Model type	MNL
Sample size	10650.0
R²	nan
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	nan
Log-likelihood at constants	nan
Log-likelihood at convergence	-10712.9

Medium-large vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	1.54	0.139
Constant: Electric vehicle	3.35	0.014
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.03	0.259

SUV
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	0.39	0.734
Constant: Diesel vehicle	3.09	0.003
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.04	0.298

Small vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	1.76	0.04
Constant: Electric vehicle	3.77	0.001
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.55	0.49

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Capital cost	-0.1733	0.0
Range	0.00483	0.0
Annual taxes	-0.00154	0.0
Refueling cost	-0.02076	0.0
Fuel availability	5.1497	0.0
Scale factor: Bogotá	0.42	0.0
Scale factor: Medellín	0.84	0.0
Scale factor: Cali	0.5	0.0
Scale factor: Baranquilla	0.83	0.0
Panel effect	-2.5	0.0
High income: Natural gas vehicle	-0.79	0.011
Motor: Natural gas vehicle	0.45	0.097
Study level: Natural gas vehicle	0.18	0.638
Vehipers: Natural gas vehicle	-0.04	0.944
Age: Natural gas vehicle	1.14	0.368
Gender: Natural gas vehicle	0.26	0.412
High income: Electric vehicle	0.14	0.66
Motor: Electric vehicle	-0.41	0.254
Study level: Electric vehicle	0.9	0.038
Vehipers: Electric vehicle	-1.92	0.002
Age: Electric vehicle	0.66	0.638
Gender: Electric gas vehicle	-0.4	0.238
High income: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.09	0.0
Motor: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.13	0.603
Study level: Hybrid electricvehicle	-0.12	0.764
Vehipers: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.71	0.246
Age: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.7	0.509
Gender: Hybrid electric gas vehicle	-0.1	0.741
High income: Diesel vehicle	-0.25	0.535
Motor: Diesel vehicle	-0.44	0.121
Study level: Diesel vehicle	0.61	0.317
Vehipers: Diesel vehicle	-0.95	0.089
Age: Diesel vehicle	-0.44	0.764
Gender: Diesel gas vehicle	-0.53	0.174

Dependent variable	Car choice
Model type	HCM
Sample size	10650.0
R²	nan
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	nan
Log-likelihood at constants	-32467.6
Log-likelihood at convergence	-10676.4

Medium-large vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	2.78	0.007
Constant: Electric vehicle	3.61	0.036
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-1.12	0.259

SUV
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	1.72	0.162
Constant: Diesel vehicle	3.47	0.0
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-1.24	0.276

Small vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	2.72	0.001
Constant: Electric vehicle	4.02	0.004
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-1.29	0.099

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Capital cost	-0.1757	0.0
Range	0.00492	0.0
Annual taxes	-0.0015	0.0
Refueling cost	-0.02042	0.0
Fuel availability	5.19	0.0
Scale factor: Bogotá	0.43	0.0
Scale factor: Medellín	0.85	0.0
Scale factor: Cali	0.47	0.0
Scale factor: Baranquilla	0.83	0.0
Panel effect	0.3	0.271
Environmental concern: Natural gas vehicle	2.36	0.0
Environmental concern: Electric vehicle	3.57	0.0
Environmental concern: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.29	0.009
Environmental concern: Diesel vehicle	1.77	0.001
Support for green transport policies: Natural gas vehicle	-0.29	0.368
Support for green transport policies: Electric vehicle	1.95	0.016
Support for green transport policies: Hybrid electric vehicle	3.16	0.0
Support for green transport policies: Diesel vehicle	1.33	0.001
Pro-car use: Natural gas vehicle	0.22	0.549
Pro-car use: Electric vehicle	-2.4	0.001
Pro-car use: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.03	0.952
Pro-car use: Diesel vehicle	-1.93	0.008

Dependent variable	Car choice
Model type	HCM
Sample size	10650.0
R²	nan
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	nan
Log-likelihood at constants	-32462.6
Log-likelihood at convergence	-10681.3

Medium-large vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	1.82	0.022
Constant: Electric vehicle	4.49	0.147
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.07	0.928

SUV
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	0.04	0.984
Constant: Diesel vehicle	3.99	0.0
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.31	0.873

Small vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	2.1	0.036
Constant: Electric vehicle	4.85	0.001
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.36	0.779

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Capital cost	-0.1766	0.0
Range	0.0492	0.0
Annual taxes	-0.00152	0.0
Refueling cost	-0.02033	0.0
Fuel availability	5.31	0.0
Scale factor: Bogotá	0.41	0.0
Scale factor: Mendellín	0.86	0.0
Scale factor: Cali	0.49	0.0
Scale factor: Baranquilla	0.81	0.0
Panel effect	0.03	0.976
Environmental concern: Natural gas vehicle	2.56	0.0
Environmental concern: Electric vehicle	3.48	0.0
Environmental concern: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.56	0.285
Environmental concern: Diesel vehicle	0.39	0.849
Support for green transport policies: Natural gas vehicle	0.45	0.841
Support for green transport policies: Electric vehicle	1.42	0.555
Support for green transport policies: Hybrid electric vehicle	3.08	0.28
Support for green transport policies: Diesel vehicle	0.08	0.984
Pro-car use: Natural gas vehicle	1.07	0.0
Pro-car use: Electric vehicle	-2.39	0.001
Pro-car use: Hybrid electric vehicle	-1.08	0.014
Pro-car use: Diesel vehicle	-1.52	0.646
Pro-technology: Natural gas vehicle	1.66	0.271
Pro-technology: Electric vehicle	2.25	0.006
Pro-technology: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.6	0.697
Pro-technology: Diesel vehicle	2.53	0.201

Dependent variable	Attitudes
Model type	Structural model
Sample size	1065
R²	nan
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	nan
Log-likelihood at constants	nan
Log-likelihood at convergence	nan

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Gender	-0.18	0.0
Age	-0.9	0.0
VEHIPERS	0.28	0.017
Age	0.39	0.049
VEHIPERS	0.09	0.459
Education level	0.19	0.004
High income	0.24	0.001
Motor	0.1	0.039
High income	0.01	0.912
Motor	-0.13	0.066
Attitudes pro-technology	-9.0	0.0
Age	-0.18	0.741
VEHIPERS	0.98	0.129
High income	0.22	0.075
Motor	0.18	0.099
Attitudes pro-technology	-0.82	0.289

Dependent variable	Car choice
Model type	HCM
Sample size	10650.0
R²	nan
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	-32238.0
Log-likelihood at constants	nan
Log-likelihood at convergence	-10466.0

Medium-large vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	2.72	0.016
Constant: Electric vehicle	2.81	0.091
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.44	0.803

SUV
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	2.01	0.121
Constant: Diesel vehicle	1.88	0.049
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.3	0.873

Small vehicle
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Constant: Natural gas vehicle	3.02	0.0
Constant: Electric vehicle	3.08	0.003
Constant: Hybrid electric vehicle	0.03	0.968

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Capital cost (Bucaramanga base attributes)	-10.29	0.0
Range (Bucaramanga base attributes)	5.63	0.0
Annual taxes (Bucaramanga base attributes)	-20.78	0.0
Refueling cost (Bucaramanga base attributes)	-10.36	0.04
Fuel availability (Bucaramanga base attributes)	5.96	0.0
Capital cost (Bogotá interaction term)	-26.43	0.0
Range (Bogotá interaction term)	11.56	0.0
Annual taxes (Bogotá interaction term)	2.43	0.631
Refueling cost (Bogotá interaction term)	-17.36	0.041
Fuel availability (Bogotá interaction term)	-5.23	0.0
Capital cost (Medellín interaction term)	-2.79	0.484
Range (Medellín interaction term)	-4.55	0.02
Annual taxes (Medellín interaction term)	11.45	0.016
Refueling cost (Medellín interaction term)	-37.62	0.0
Fuel availability (Medellín interaction term)	3.18	0.042
Capital cost (Cali interaction term)	-13.75	0.0
Range (Cali interaction term)	-1.54	0.424
Annual taxes (Cali interaction term)	-11.72	0.069
Refueling cost (Cali interaction term)	-10.36	0.211
Fuel availability (Cali interaction term)	-2.24	0.047
Capital cost (Barranquilla interaction term)	-4.3	0.263
Range (Barranquilla interaction term)	-3.12	0.047
Annual taxes (Barranquilla interaction term)	12.93	0.005
Refueling cost (Barranquilla interaction term)	5.1	0.401
Fuel availability (Barranquilla interaction term)	-4.03	0.0
Scale factor: Bogotá	0.39	0.0
Scale factor: Medellín	0.85	0.0
Scale factor: Cali	0.51	0.0
Scale factor: Baranquilla	0.99	0.0
Environmental concern: Natural gas vehicle	-0.53	0.126
Environmental concern: Electric vehicle	-0.6	0.19
Environmental concern: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.03	0.96
Environmental concern: Diesel vehicle	-0.86	0.156
Support for green transport policies: Natural gas vehicle	0.81	0.254
Support for green transport policies: Electric vehicle	-1.62	0.204
Support for green transport policies: Hybrid electric vehicle	-0.46	0.147
Support for green transport policies: Diesel vehicle	1.46	0.095
Pro-car use: Natural gas vehicle	-0.47	0.562
Pro-car use: Electric vehicle	-0.05	0.841
Pro-car use: Hybrid electric vehicle	1.42	0.014
Pro-car use: Diesel vehicle	-1.28	0.016
Panel effect	-1.77	0.0