Mono- and multimodal green transport use on university trips during winter and summer: Hybrid choice models on the norm-activation theory

Mehdizadeh, Zavareh, Nordfjaern, 2019, in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.046
Location Trondheim, Norway
Population Students
Sample size 316
Factor analysis type confirmatory factor analysis, none rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables yes
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

The current study investigated the effects of environmental norms and beliefs as well as socioeconomic and situational characteristics on multimodal and monomodal green transport and car use on university trips during winter and summertime in Norway. Our major contribution to the state of the art is threefold: (1) we tested the norm-activation model (NAM) as well as demographic, socioeconomic and situational characteristics in explaining modality use through developing a hybrid choice model (HCM), (2) we explored the predictors of modality use among university students, and (3) we empirically investigated how, and to what extent, seasonal variation (winter versus summer) impacts on the link between the NAM theory and modality use. A cross-sectional self-administered survey was carried out in February 2019 at two of the largest university campuses in Trondheim, Norway (Dragvoll and Gløshaugen). Out of 419 questionnaires distributed among students, 316 valid observations were used for analysis. Findings showed that: (1) the NAM theory was associated with multimodal and monomodal green mode use in summertime, while this relation was not supported for wintertime, (2) most of the students in the current sample were green transport-oriented, and (3) situational factors such as accessibility to public transit and cycling time to university were more important for modality use during wintertime than summertime. Policymakers could implement measures so as to provide availability of all green transport modes and routes, such as reliable and safe bicycle and walking paths, for all days during wintertime even during days with heavy snowfall in order to activate individuals’ moral obligations towards reducing car use and modal shifts from car to green transport modes. Furthermore, encouraging students to be multimodal green transport users could be a feasible policy in order to reduce the probability of any shift from a green-oriented mode to the car, even in days with exceptional weather during the winter season. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

Factors

Variable Pattern loading
I feel joint responsibility for the exhaustion of fossil fuels by car use (Environmentalism) 0.72
I am jointly responsible for the problems caused by car use (Environmentalism) 0.82
I feel joint responsibility for the contribution of car traffic to global warming (Environmentalism) 0.82
My contribution to the problems of car use is negligible (Environmentalism) 0.48
Variable Pattern loading
Car use causes exhaustion of scarce resources, such as oil (Environmentalism) 0.71
Car use takes up a lot of space resulting in less space for cyclists, pedestrians, and children (Safety) 0.74
Car use is an important cause of traffic-related accidents (Safety) 0.48
Car use reduces urban quality of life due to traffic noise and odour nuisance (Environmentalism) 0.72
By reducing car use the level of air pollution will decrease (Environmentalism) 0.57
Variable Pattern loading
I feel personally obliged to travel in an environmentally sound way, such as by using a bicycle or public transport (Environmentalism) 0.77
I would be a better person if I used more often other transport modes instead of the car (Environmentalism) 0.67
I feel obliged to take the environmental consequences of car use into account when making travel choices (Environmentalism) 0.79
I do feel guilty when I use the car even though there are other feasible transport alternatives available (Environmentalism) 0.67
If I buy a new car, I feel morally obliged to buy an energy efficient car (Environmentalism) 0.66
I feel morally obliged to use the car as little as possible, regardless of what other people do (Social norms) 0.84
I do feel personally obliged to use the car as little as possible (Environmentalism) 0.76

Models

Dependent variable Mode choice
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 310.0
R2 0.29
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -8837.3
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence -6268.6
Ascription of responsibility
Variable Coefficient p-value
Male -0.32 0.023
Driving license 0.12 0.011
Awareness of consequences 0.75 0.0
Random term 0.14 0.0
Awareness of consequences
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 23-36 0.67 0.002
Car ownership -1.44 0.0
Random term 0.64 0.0
Monomodal green user
Variable Coefficient p-value
Modal group-specific constant 0.85 0.001
Age 23-36 0.92 0.0
Perceived walking time to nearest public transit station > 5 min -1.03 0.004
Perceived walking time to university (min) -0.98 0.0
Perceived cycling time to unversity > 20 minutes -0.46 0.01
Multimodal car user
Variable Coefficient p-value
Modal group-specific constant -3.12 0.005
Car ownership 2.45 0.0
Perceived walking time to nearest public transit station > 5 min 0.8 0.001
Awareness of consequences -0.18 0.857
Personal norms
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 23-36 0.92 0.015
Male -0.86 0.0
Ascription of responsibility 0.64 0.002
Random term 0.78 0.0
Dependent variable Mode choice
Model type Hybrid choice model
Sample size 311.0
R2 0.38
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -8705.1
Log-likelihood at constants nan
Log-likelihood at convergence -5374.8
Ascription of responsibility
Variable Coefficient p-value
Male -0.32 0.023
Driving license 0.12 0.011
Awareness of consequences 0.75 0.0
Random term 0.14 0.0
Awareness of consequences
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 23-36 0.67 0.002
Car ownership -1.44 0.0
Random term 0.64 0.0
Monomodal green user
Variable Coefficient p-value
Modal group-specific constant 1.24 0.004
Age 23-36 1.24 0.0
Male -0.63 0.004
Bike ownership 0.16 0.033
Perceived walking time to university > 30 min -0.63 0.006
Multimodal car user
Variable Coefficient p-value
Modal group-specific constant -2.92 0.0
Driving license 0.72 0.002
Car ownership 1.68 0.003
Awareness of consequences -0.76 0.0
Ascription of responsibility 0.45 0.002
Personal norm -0.32 0.005
Personal norms
Variable Coefficient p-value
Age 23-36 0.92 0.015
Male -0.86 0.0
Ascription of responsibility 0.64 0.002
Random term 0.78 0.0

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

sha256:a08d9e369743bf7e6d1c40d27347318209b40a7fb1543813fdcf31b898918815