Taste heterogeneity as an alternative form of endogeneity bias: Investigating the attitude-moderated effects of built environment and socio-demographics on vehicle ownership using latent class modeling

Kim, Mokhtarian, 2018, in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2018.05.020
Location Northern California, USA
Population General
Sample size 2385
Factor analysis type exploratory factor analysis, Oblique rotation
Stepwise regression no
Removal of insignificant variables no
Reviewed by LCM

Abstract

Vehicle ownership (VO) is of vital interest to transportation planning and policy, both in its own right and as a correlate of other travel-related behaviors. This study explores disaggregate relationships among socio-economic/demographic (SED) traits, the built environment (BE), and VO. Many previous studies have assumed that the importance of SED and BE variables to VO is homogeneous across the population, and have focused on the direct and mediated effects of those variables on VO. Here, we aim to account for heterogeneity in the effects of BE and SED, allowing those effects on VO to be moderated as a function of attitudes. Specifically, we use Latent Class Modeling (LCM), which probabilistically segments the sample so as to be homogeneous within and heterogeneous across segments, with respect to the choice process. Applied to a sample of 2385 commuters in Northern California, LCM outperforms an ordinary multinomial logit model and a deterministic segmentation model. The LCM identifies two classes: an “auto-oriented” segment, for which household size and income have stronger influences on vehicle ownership (compared to the other segment); and an “urbanite” segment, for which the BE generally has a stronger influence. This study contributes to better understanding the heterogeneity of an important travel-related choice process, and offers an alternative explanation to residential self-selection for an attitude-related endogeneity bias. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Factors

Models

Dependent variable Vehicle ownership
Model type MNL
Sample size 2385.0
R2 0.227
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -3306.312
Log-likelihood at constants -3079.258
Log-likelihood at convergence -2555.086
1 car
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept 1.054 0.0
Household income category 0.389 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.256 0.089
Population density (people/acre) -0.014 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.01 0.418
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.144 0.0
2 cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -0.423 0.108
Household income category 0.749 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.991 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.04 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.025 0.064
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.816 0.0
3+ cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -1.292 0.0
Household income category 0.829 0.0
Number of full-time workers 1.28 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.054 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.073 0.0
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -2.24 0.0
Dependent variable Vehicle ownership
Model type Deterministically segmented choice model
Sample size 1262.0
R2 0.274
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -1749.503
Log-likelihood at constants -1447.815
Log-likelihood at convergence -1270.179
1 car
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept 1.414 0.006
Household income category 0.511 0.011
Number of full-time workers 0.159 0.646
Population density (people/acre) -0.001 0.96
Jobs-housing balance -0.027 0.134
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.594 0.003
2 cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -0.101 0.849
Household income category 0.892 0.0
Number of full-time workers 1.041 0.003
Population density (people/acre) -0.024 0.088
Jobs-housing balance -0.037 0.029
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.967 0.0
3+ cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -1.075 0.051
Household income category 1.014 0.0
Number of full-time workers 1.372 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.034 0.022
Jobs-housing balance -0.071 0.003
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -2.37 0.0
Dependent variable Vehicle ownership
Model type Deterministically segmented choice model
Sample size 1123.0
R2 0.214
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -1556.809
Log-likelihood at constants -1412.945
Log-likelihood at convergence -1224.058
1 car
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept 0.647 0.024
Household income category 0.395 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.28 0.114
Population density (people/acre) -0.015 0.001
Jobs-housing balance 0.004 0.834
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -0.895 0.003
2 cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -1.002 0.003
Household income category 0.778 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.897 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.043 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.018 0.368
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.541 0.0
3+ cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -1.771 0.0
Household income category 0.81 0.0
Number of full-time workers 1.05 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.057 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.111 0.012
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.763 0.0
Dependent variable Vehicle ownership
Model type Latent class model
Sample size 2385.0
R2 0.26
Adjusted R2
Pseudo R2 (nan) nan
AIC nan
BIC nan
Log-likelihood at zero -3306.312
Log-likelihood at constants -3079.258
Log-likelihood at convergence -2448.123
1 car
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -0.398 0.749
Household income category 1.83 0.032
Number of full-time workers 0.957 0.276
Population density (people/acre) 0.004 0.841
Jobs-housing balance -0.037 0.294
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.82 0.058
Intercept 0.483 0.204
Household income category 0.446 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.398 0.027
Population density (people/acre) -0.04 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.033 0.153
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -0.51 0.168
2 cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -2.18 0.089
Household income category 2.219 0.01
Number of full-time workers 2.282 0.011
Population density (people/acre) -0.026 0.197
Jobs-housing balance -0.05 0.15
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.946 0.049
Intercept -1.541 0.015
Household income category 0.94 0.0
Number of full-time workers 0.752 0.0
Population density (people/acre) -0.069 0.0
Jobs-housing balance -0.09 0.095
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -1.492 0.002
3+ cars
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -3.397 0.011
Household income category 2.359 0.006
Number of full-time workers 2.726 0.003
Population density (people/acre) -0.033 0.101
Jobs-housing balance -0.088 0.021
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -2.283 0.024
Intercept -1.18 0.347
Household income category 0.92 0.002
Number of full-time workers 0.58 0.105
Population density (people/acre) -0.161 0.003
Jobs-housing balance -0.484 0.027
Proportion of block-group employment within 1/2 mile of transit stop -2.384 0.204
Variable Coefficient p-value
Intercept -0.916 0.002
Pro-transit 0.766 0.0
Pro-active modes 0.531 0.005
Pro-(high) density 0.889 0.0

The Attitudes and Travel Database is produced with support from the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks at Arizona State University, a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116.

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