Who will buy alternative fueled or automated vehicles: A modular, behavioral modeling approach

Tsouros, Polydoropoulou, 2020, in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.11.013

Location	Lesvos, Greece and Chios, Greece
Population	General
Sample size	550
Factor analysis type	confirmatory factor analysis, none rotation
Stepwise regression	no
Removal of insignificant variables	yes
Reviewed by	LCM

Abstract

Future car purchase can determine an array of things ranging from CO2 emissions to urban life quality. For this reason, models and methods predicting car purchase are valuable to policy makers. This paper examines the future car purchase choice, using modules and different levels of attributes that construct a car, and measures the effect on the purchase choice of personality traits such as symbolic/exuberant attitudes towards vehicles. The results may enable policy makers to focus on certain market segments when promoting alternative fuel and automated vehicles. The paper proposes a hybrid choice model, with latent variables capturing the pro-environmental, exuberant and tech-friendly attitudes of individuals. The questionnaire presented to the respondents is in the form of a menu, from which participants may choose five different types of vehicle characteristics (engine size, type of car, fuel type, car edition and level of automation) to construct their ideal vehicle. Results indicate a negative correlation between symbolic, exuberant attitudes towards automobiles, the view of cars as symbols, and willingness to purchase a hybrid or electric vehicle. The findings further suggest that there is a correlation between symbol-driven exuberant attitudes and the desire to buy a larger vehicle. This paper examines the relationship between the symbolic perception of cars and, simultaneously, a range of characteristics, to discover which car attributes the symbolic perception affects. It also proposes an integrated framework for the modeling of future car purchase, with the hypothesis that each of the three presented latent variables can affect different modules of the individual's ideal car concept. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

Factors

Variable	Pattern loading
I believe that protecting the environment is a critical issue (Environmentalism)	0.714
I act in an environmentally friendly manner (Environmentalism)	0.783
I recycle on a weekly basis (Environmentalism)	0.611
I take part in environmental action (Environmentalism)	nan
I use energy saving lightbulbs (Environmentalism)	0.874

Variable	Pattern loading
I enjoy the sound of the vehicle engine a lot (Lifestyle)	nan
The vehicles I own show who I am (Mode-liking)	4.12
I may envy somebody with a nice vehicle (Mode-liking)	3.98
The vehicle brand is more important than the vehicle characteristics (Other)	2.08
The vehicles I own provide prestige to me (Mode-liking)	4.26

Variable	Pattern loading
I rely on technology to get things done (Lifestyle)	nan
The internet is a big part of my everyday life (Lifestyle)	1.94
I own a large number of gadgets (Lifestyle)	0.72
Our civilization stops when there is not electricity (Other)	4.9
My life would be extremely hard without technology (Lifestyle)	3.12

Models

Dependent variable	Type of car repondent intends to purchase
Model type	HCM
Sample size	550
R²	0.584
Adjusted R²
Pseudo R² (nan)	nan
AIC	nan
BIC	nan
Log-likelihood at zero	nan
Log-likelihood at constants	nan
Log-likelihood at convergence	nan

Cars with automation levels 4 and 5
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Tech-savviness	4.12	0.0

Cars with engines larger than 1600 CC
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Exuberance	0.175	0.004

Eco-friendliness
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Mean	3.71	0.0
Male	-0.589	0.002
Age < 30	1.09	0.0
Occupation: Employee	-0.952	0.0
Education level: Graduate degree	0.963	0.002
Occupation: Pensioner	-0.924	0.005
Occupation: Student	1.39	0.0
Sigma	1.16	0.0

Exuberance
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Mean	3.83	0.0
Age > 65	0.038	0.004
Female	-0.005	0.818
Has smartphone	0.02	0.065
Education level: High school	0.099	0.048
Has motorcycle license	0.137	0.014
Sigma	-0.252	0.005

Hybrid vehicles
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Exuberance	-0.281	0.0
Eco-friendliness	0.585	0.028

Tech-savviness
Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Mean	7.72	0.0
Education level: University and higher	0.82	0.0
Age	-0.28	0.0
Number of cars in household	0.4	0.121
Occupation: Private employee	0.254	0.055
Occupation: Freelancer	0.41	0.007
Sigma	-0.34	0.003

Variable	Coefficient	p-value
Engine size 1	5.71	0.039
Engine size 2	6.96	0.028
Car size 2	5.58	0.0
Other car size	4.12	0.0
Gas powered vehicle	8.24	0.0
Hybrid vehicle	6.77	0.0
2nd edition car	6.35	0.0
Other edition car	1.84	0.0
Price	-2.05	0.0